World News
El Nino is near certain to run into 2027 and may be the strongest recorded
By Staff Writer | 4 September 2026
The World Meteorological Organization put the likelihood of El Nino persisting to February 2027 at nearly 100 per cent on 3 September, the first time one of its updates has been that unequivocal, and said the event will strengthen to very strong before it peaks at the end of the year.
The World Meteorological Organization said on 3 September that El Nino is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with what it called big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and the associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat. Forecasts from its Global Producing Centres give an exceptionally high likelihood, of nearly 100 per cent, that the event will persist through to February 2027. The organisation said it was the first time one of its El Nino and La Nina updates had been so unequivocal.
The event is expected to strengthen further during the coming months, peak towards the end of this year and leave climate impacts running well into 2027. The organisation grades events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, and this one is forecast to reach the top of that scale.
What the ocean is doing
The Nino 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, averaged 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal in May to July and 2.0 degrees above normal in July. Weekly values between late July and mid August ranged from about 2.2 to 2.6 degrees above average. Below the surface the warmth is greater still: in some areas subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8 degrees above average during July and early August.
The organisation's Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, told reporters in Geneva that if the trajectory continues the event may be stronger than anything since its monitoring began, four decades ago. She said the 2023 to 2024 event had contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record and that nobody should be surprised if that record is broken, because heat in the oceans releases into the atmosphere slowly and pushes up global temperatures in the following year.
El Nino is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.
Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations
The organisation was careful on one point. The strength of an event does not on its own decide how severe its effects will be in any one country. Effects vary by location and season and are modified by other drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to develop, with a September to November seasonal mean value of 0.9 degrees, and the tropical Atlantic is forecast to stay warm on both sides of the equator. Those conditions may reinforce, weaken or alter the usual pattern in different regions.
What is forecast for the next three months
For September to November the organisation's multi-model forecasts show an increased likelihood of above normal temperatures across almost all land areas, alongside rainfall patterns it describes as a pronounced and classic atmospheric response to a strong Pacific El Nino. Major events have tended to bring drought to parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted monsoons in India and shifted rainfall through the tropics, though every event differs.
For anyone pricing weather risk on a programme that runs into 2027, the number to take away is the nearly 100 per cent. Seasonal outlooks are usually hedged. This one is not, and it carries the organisation's own statement that it has never mobilised its national services on this scale before.
Ms Saulo said the organisation would work with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide climate intelligence for disaster management and for sectors sensitive to weather, naming agriculture, health, energy and water resources. "We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Nino intensifies," she said. National meteorological and hydrological services remain the authoritative source of official warnings.
El Nino is a natural phenomenon and is not caused by climate change, the organisation said. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months, and its effect on global temperatures is usually most pronounced in the year after it develops. That puts the year to watch at 2027.